Boris’s rhetoric of economic success is dangerous. When the UK overall trade weakness is exposed, millions will ask, how could things have got so bad so quickly? It has got bad slowly, been ignored and the problem has accumulated. It could have been corrected with a bit of humility, wisdom and a lower £, not a jolt.
The Current Account is the main measure of our overall trading position in relation to other countries – an important indicator. We are weak in manufacturing, import much food and many other goods, and have a surplus in financial services. A quarter of our non-financial business is owned overseas in a long buy-up process since Thatcher. So our international trading position is not strong.
It shows throughout this century a long decline in paying our way. Now the Current Account Deficit – roughly earnings abroad minus spending – is (minus) 7%, and it has declined with bumps since 2000. Crudely, we are not paying our way by say £1,000 a year per household and we will be held to account sooner or later. There is about £1 trillion of our debt which holders overseas could offload.
Good commentators see this is a real problem now. There is no understanding of when this weakness will be exposed, otherwise the markets would be already moving, but later or sooner, it will happen. The £ will fall, the cost of living increase, markets falter and our economic weakness will be exposed.