Friends, Romans, Countrymen,

I have been asked by Teresa to speak to you about Brexit, and I am happy to oblige. It is a privilege. Indeed, privilege to be an Englishman, and to vote for myself and all I stand for, is what Brexit is about. I will not mention the War. Indeed, I cannot mention the War, because I might say something silly and spoil my chances of becoming the next Prime Minister. As I sit in Cabinet with a slight smile on my face, at once loyal and distant, I think “What would Billy Bunter do?” and I know he would have voted for Brexit, illegally, because he was under age, but voted nonetheless.

And Brutus, et tu Brute, as they taught us at school, he would have voted for Brexit – not Brexit left as the stage directions say, for Corbyn is a lean and hungry man. He thinks too much. Such men are dangerous, as I Julius so perceptively saw it in ancient Rome. No, we must fight them in the trenches and fight them in the restaurants. What after all is wrong with bangers and mash and fish and chips, as long as they come in the Daily Mail?

But I want to reach out to the remainers, those poor losers who were not taken in by all the things I was saying. Let me say to you that once I was not sure, and Dave was Prime Minister. Then I made up my mind and Dave went and so did George. That was a great day and remained so (if I may use the word) until my friend, Michael Gove, withdrew support for me as Prime Minister, and I was stabbed, but not fatally. Now you too can agree with what I say, and lose your critical faculties.

When we are fully Brexit and people vote again as Brits, and they can only vote Conservative, because Conservatives are for growth, equality, empire, the Monarchy, though I am not sure about Charles, wealth and prosperity for all, then I may still be Prime Minister, because Teresa is a loser and I am a winner, and that is what Brexit is for.

The time has come for Britain to be great again. That is why I wrote my book about Churchill and try to look like him. We need to think globally and reconstruct the Empire. We do not need Europe. Indeed, holidays in Europe are parochial. They lack vision. Let us reach out I say. Let us look to far horizons. Let us pull together. The scrum of life is before us. In rugby we push and in rowing we pull, and that is what Britain is all about.

As we march to victory with boundary changes in my constituency, let us realize that never in human history was so much owed by so many to so few with still even more money in tax havens, as Winston said. Sit down to rapturous applause and dip slightly having tousled hair in an endearing manner.

The Conservative Party needs a leader. Since Thatcher, long-lived and falsely successful leadership (North Sea Oil and selling off the State’s family silver) we have had John Major, William Hague, Iain Duncan Smith, Michael Howard, David Cameron and Teresa May in 27 years. May now faces a challenge, though she won the last election, because she might not win the next one. Note the central credo. A Conservative leader must win elections. Says who? Why MPs with seats to defend, who also largely select leaders in the Conservative Party.

Of course, Labour has proved no different. Corbyn had to go, and was rubbished by most of his party’s MPs until, at the 2017 election is became clear that Corbyn nearly won, was on the right side of history, supported by the young, and suddenly from deepest venom they all marched up the hill again and became Corbynistas. Fortunately, the leader had been schooled in several decades of insignificant unpopularity and may survive adulation, but the MPs clearly have few political principles and want to keep their seats warm. They change with the wind of Public Opinion Polls, or POP for short.

So, what is a democratic party? It is, in truth, (not used lightly) a shared body of convictions and principles which people believe should by conscience, preferably before God, shape the policies of government through elections. It is conscience (that great word), not power. It is the sifting of truth and error in public life, so that we might do what is right and good, and here’s the rub. Democratic parties are often wrong. Selling council houses in the 80s and 90s and not putting the money into new housebuilding was wrong. Deregulating banks was wrong. Invading Iraq was wrong. Allowing off-shore tax evasion was wrong. Cutting public services is wrong. Privatising rail was wrong. In fact, a high proportion of what parties advocate is wrong, aside the logic that given three or four parties disagree, being wrong must be a big part of politics.

But it is worse than this. The electorate is also (usually) wrong. A Republican Party which can choose Reagan, George W. Bush and now Trump is in a stage of terminal mindlessness, a world danger given its military dominance. We vote for Thatcher because she wins a war against Argentina or perhaps against a figure who coughs at a party conference. We vote for climate change deniers, or ignorers, in Gadarene droves. This is not said triumphally. Finding we are wrong, and learning from it, is one of the best routes to understanding on the planet. If ordinary Jews can be persuaded to vote for Barabbas and against Jesus, the human race has problems, as of course it has – now – in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Las Vegas, Kensington or wherever the wounded doctor puts his figure on the pulse. Learning what is wrong is a prophetically deep task, and the real precursors of democratic parties are Isaiah, Jeremiah, Hosea, Socrates and John the Baptist, but especially Jesus in Matthew 23.

For we are all hypocrites:- taxation, but not for me, British self-interest, but not that of other nations, my pay high and others low, my house price rise and pseudo-concern for others, peace with nukes, Great Britain but not great France, cheap goods and slave labour, our boys courageous, but theirs do outrageous killing, my car pollution but cut greenhouse gases. We are in a deep hypocritical crisis.

What is this guy on about? May will have to go/stay. Trump will come and go. Putin will stay or go. It is all about power, democratic power, now media-centric power, the tweet of the President. So, the poor and jobless of middle America choose the born rich, mindless master of media exposure. It is all about power, even power prostituted by fake news, and leaders have to win. It is all about power. But it is not all about power. Jesus of Nazareth chose to rule from another place. His power was humble truth, hungering and thirsting for the right and just, loving enemies, knowing economic contentment and having no-where to lay his head. It was Pilate (Roman power) or Jesus (witnessing to the truth), and Jesus won, not with a knock-out blow, but by the long humble search for truth before the Spirit of God.

So today we face a crisis in party politics. The empty process of winning, of rubbishing the opposition, as though the truth does not matter, of seeking popularity as though the voter is always right, of choosing the vote winning leader irrespective of content, or forging the strap line for the election and using the people yet again.

Corbyn broke the mould, but is now rubbishing according to the culture. We need political repentance of an unprecedented kind to really rescue democratic party politics. We need to look to Christ, and see the crown of thorns truly.

It is exciting that you have turned out in such large numbers and have managed to finish breakfast by this unearthly hour. My first hope for Brexit is that the Full English breakfast will be returned to its proper place, preferably served on silverware. It is only a F.E.B start to the day that allows the work and government of the day to be finished before 4 o’clock and we should put it in our manifesto.

This is an important speech on an important subject, and I must not be sidetracked by other issues. Let me say what an outstanding, indeed even good, leader, Teresa May is in these challenging times for our country. And when she is gone, we will be eternally grateful for what she has done. As your Foreign Secretary I face challenges from Russia, Syria, Burma, China and the British Virgin Islands. In fact, there is nothing I enjoy more than the challenge from the British Virgin Isles. Ho. Ho. Ho. Fortunately, the horrible hurricanes did not actually hit our investments. I was a teeny bit worried and asked one of our Treasury wallahs about it. He said that the money was not actually there. But I have every confidence that old Hammo will be able to find it somewhere in the Empire.

Which brings me to my next topic. I am determined to find the money we have got. We are a rich country, but we have put the dosh under the mattress somewhere, and haven’t been able to find it. I lose things all the time. But they are not really lost. The servants can always find them. The key issue in Brexit is that we have lost a lot of money in Europe. We give it away every year, and Italian tourists don’t spend all their £s and then take them back home. So, my policy on Brexit is to find the money under the mattress, so that we can spend it on the NHS and nurses and things. We must get the best deal on Brexit and not a second longer. If we let Europe get too uppity, we are on the road to Mandalay, as Virgil said in the Iliad. My deepest thought on this is to remember Euro. Euro is EU owe, get it? Wot Ho. They owe. We get it.

But I must get back to my subject. Some of you wallahs may have read my book on Churchill, an amazing man, the greatest leader we ever had. He fought against great odds. He only went to Harrow and was too small to play in the scrum, but he came through. When the time was right he fought against Europe, or bits of it, when our backs were to the wall. He fought them in the beeches. That is what we must do now, with the right leader. Some of my Foreign Office guys point out that Europe is not fighting us. That is probably true, but it must not stop the Dunkirk spirit, and we must end this class stuff and all get down in the scrum and push together.

The trouble is we are pushing, but the opposition will not put the ball in. So I say to Europe, Put The Ball In, or placer le sphere en, or whatever, and I am prepared to lead the push on a level playing field. At this time, we need some weight in the scrum and we will push to victory when we leave Europe and they go back to the pavilion. We will push and I will keep my head down until the job is done.

So, thank you for coming this morning. This conference is about confidence, about confidence in your leader, and I salute you. Teresa May, or May not, (get the pun), be our leader at the next election, but I will serve as I am asked, especially now David and George have left the field. So, thank you troopers for listening to this momentous talk on this momentous topic.

It was good and positive to see you at the podium again, exercising strong leadership and speaking to the world. I see you were wearing a red tie. It is a good move. I have been wearing a lot of red dresses recently, one at a time, because it is not good for the socialists and communists to have the colour red all to themselves. In England we have the saying, “like a red rag to a bull”. Well, you are the bull and you have the red tie.

I was glad to see that you are fighting for America, and for American business, and to make America great again in relation to climate change. We are fighting to make Britain, and America, great again. I have had a word from Boris Johnson, our foreign man, saying that if you propose to rename America, the Great USA, would you give him notice, since he is thinking of the Great United Kingdom over here, and it would be good to launch GUSA and GUK together. He has been practising saying GUK and GUSA for weeks.

We, of course, do not take climate change too seriously and try to talk it down, especially since my predecessor went to the Arctic. We have lots of these frightful windmills that spoil the view on our country estates, but I am a teeny, weenie bit disappointed that you dropped the whole thing. Quite a lot of our people read science and think that billions of cars going around with their heaters on warms the planet. I know that you have not completely ruled that out. I have passed on your brilliant idea of big air conditioners made in America to our environment people. Also, your trade man asked if we have coal. Yes, we do – somewhere up North – but I’m sure we could import some good ol’ American coal, as you say. But I am sure that you alone can fight off climate change in America and we will fight it off here, “on the beaches” as our great leader Churchill said.

You nearly asked me about our election next week. I would like to say that I am showing strong and stable leadership and fighting for Great Britain. It is imperative that I am in the Negotiating Chair for Brexit (that Europe thing) and I will make Britain great again. When I say we will be a world leader, I do not mean, the world leader, which of course is you, but we will be slightly behind. I am looking forward to my next summit with you when I am re-elected by a big majority because I am the best vote by far. Could I just say that I do not mind if this paragraph is leaked.

Can I just say how much I appreciate how tough it is when one’s party becomes toxic and the whole election depends on oneself. But I will come through, and like yourself, win a resounding electoral victory supported by an overwhelming majority who will come together in unity under my and our leadership giving a bright future for everybody. I am asking the Queen again about your castle thing.

Just so that your man does not have to read this letter I am sending a taped version, so that you can hear my British accent and I do not have to hear your interruptions.

With spiffling, as we say in England, best wishes,

Theresa.

The central claim in the Conservative election campaign is that May, alone among the leaders, can bargain a good Brexit deal. The election was called to give her a mandate and we should vote for her to negotiate Brexit. She offers “strong and stable leadership” during this process and she will win a good deal for us.

May has pledged that she will “fight for Britain” and has said repeatedly that “no deal is better than a bad deal.” She is the one who should sit in the “Negotiating Chair” and she will make the difference. But is this personality pitch really what might happen? This article suggests the Emperor has no clothes. Really, May does not matter. The bargaining and trade solution will be worked out in a predictable way, not by one person. She will make little difference. May’s claim is a myth, mere posturing, sadly duping millions of voters who do not question her slogans. This snowman must be brought out into the sun so that it melts away.

Not one person, but the overall European trade situation, will shape the trade negotiations. They will be carried out by EU and UK civil servants with input from the biggest trading companies on both sides and will certainly not be formulated or evaluated by an inexpert Prime Minister posturing “strong”. The factors involved will be those normally considered in trade economics. The outcome will roughly be the following.

Because both sides have strongly linked trade, tariffs will be low. The big companies involved will see to that. The EU has to levy tariff at some rate to show we have left the single market, but their exporters will want it low. Neither side can lose face by having a differential tariff against them – say 4% on imports and 6% on exports, and so the rate will be the same both ways. Because the UK imports more than it exports, it has one bargaining chip. Because we export half of our total to the EU, they have a bargaining chip. A mutual tariff of 1% looks derisory, and so it will be 2%, 3% or 4%. Five per cent would begin to harm trade. My guess is 2%. Teresa May will largely be immaterial to the result.

Because the Conservatives have now destroyed UKIP, there is no pressure towards isolationism. Migration may even out, but May is offering no policy to cut immigration. Deals on banking may be harder. Environment, employment, trade rules, quality control and other areas will largely follow current European practice, partly because it is good and partly because UK export trade will have to follow that pattern anyway.

So May’s initial rhetoric towards negotiations is wrong. No deal is a bad deal and incompetent. Therefore, there will be a deal, unless flaring egos create problems. Either Corbyn or May will come away with 2-3% tariffs, whoever is in Number 10, and May’s election pitch is entirely unreal. The trade outcome is about as predictable as economics gets.

However, there is an elephant in the room – a UK trade crisis we are completely ignoring. In March, 2017 total trade exports were £31.4bn and total trade imports were £45.7bn, a deficit of £14.3bn. Weigh those figures. We would need to increase our exports by some 45% to be in trade balance. The trade deficit is over £100bn a year. Normally, economists use the UK Current Account Balance which includes services to assess the overall trading position, but even that is £60bn a year. This pattern has emerged over a long period and the accumulated deficit is over £1trillion. As a result more than half of the UK’s quoted companies by value and much property are owned abroad. This situation is not stable; it depends on many foreigners continuing to hold UK assets. A crisis will probably emerge in the coming five years.

Put in other terms, we are not paying our way and the situation is chronic. Each household is spending over £2000 a year more on imports than it is generating by exports and one way or another our incomes will fall. This is the issue of substance.